MarketingFree

The sandpile and the avalanche

I was power-buying at Costco recently when I discovered, situated between the tube sock 12-pack display and the bulk yard fertilizer (enough to fertilize a golf course), a brand-new book: The Age of the Unthinkable, by Joshua Cooper Ramo.

Full disclosure:  I haven't finished the book yet, and Ramo seems to have a knack for using a lot of words to not get to the point - but, I find the book intriguing just the same.  And, applicable to Postmarketing.

A central concept that Ramo talks about is the unpredictable nature of sandpiles, as studied by a Danish scientist named Per Bak.  Bak created sandpile after sandpile, by systematically dropping sand one grain at a time, and then observing at what point a grain of sand dropped and set-off a chain-reaction avalanche that caused the whole pile to disintegrate.  His conclusion?  There is no way to predict which grain of sand will cause the avalanche, or the extent of the damage.

For Ramo, this is a useful analogy to the seeming chaos of the current geo-political environment, with terrorists, quasi-nation-states, separatist groups and transnational organizations all vying for power.  Even with all of the intelligence in the world, there is no way to predict the event that might change everything, or the extent to which any single event will alter the future.

Lest I fall victim to not getting to my point quickly, here it is:  the worlds of marketing, social networking, media and technology are being mashed-up in ways that can't be predicted, meaning that the old ways of looking at marketing (like the 4p's) are increasingly irrelevant, and potentially even flawed.  One can no longer predict market acceptance, because the grain of sand that causes an avalanche of adoption can't be predicted.

Postmarketers must be scientists (experimental and analytical) and deconstructionists (of existing methods and assumptions) so that they raise their probability of finding the grain that sets-off a chain reaction of adoption.

Now, I'm going to go finish that book...

Postmarketing - New principles for a new age

Soapbox time!  I've been thinking a lot about how the dramatic changes in the global economy might affect my job as a marketer, and I have had the privilege to speak to a number of companies about how they are rethinking marketing.  So, I thought I would share my ideas with you via a SlideShare preso.

Please check it out, send it to others who might like it, and rate it.  I would love to hear your comments and feedback here, or in SlideShare.

*Disclaimer:  this is a preso, meant to be presented, so it leaves a bit to the imagination.  I will delve deeper on some of the concepts in the coming days, in blog posts.  Enjoy!

Postmarketing - new principles for the postmarketing age

View more presentations from tbarr. (tags: media social)

How Wacky Wally weed-whacked his weputation

Marketing lesson of the day:  in the reputation economy, you can run, but you can't hide.

The guy who takes care of my yard has branded himself Wacky Wally (it's actually not Wacky Wally, but it's similar - names have been changed to protect the guilty, in this case).  When you say it, it kind of makes you chuckle and it's easy to remember - probably a pretty good idea for someone who, theoretically, grows his business based on word-of-mouth and a good reputation.

Trouble is - Wacky Wally isn't a very good yard guy.  I would fire him, but my landlord pays for it so I don't really care that much.  I might have just concluded that Wally was just really busy and in-demand, so that's why he lets my yard grow uncontrollably for weeks.  And, if I got frustrated enough and really did fire him, he probably could have talked me into a second chance or, worst case scenario, just lost one small customer.

But that's not how Wally rolls.  Recently, Wally sent out an e-mail to all of his customers to ask them to vote for him in the latest Austin Chronicle Best-of-Austin poll for Best Landscaper, with the subject "LOVE".

Mistake number one was that he didn't BCC everyone, so we all saw the entire e-mail list of his customers (making it easy to Reply-All).  But mistake number two actually happened awhile ago:  Wally provided bad service, and didn't fix it.

Two replies (and only two) came back to the entire list almost immediately:

Reply #1: 

"Are you kidding?  You were the worst experience we ever had regarding yard men!"

Reply #2: 

"Hi Wally,

My puzzlement notwithstanding - if you will do something about those dead plants that you charged me for after your costly and protracted landscaping effort, I will not only vote for you several times but will forget that you did not return my "four" related messages begging you to deal with my plants.

I am not only forgiving, but easily bought off; if you fix my plants - I will vote my ass off!!

Best regards,

-Larry Hiller (name changed)

With LOVE, of course."

Final score:  Angry Customers 2, Wally's reputation 0.

So, in the course of one e-mail, Wally pretty much weed-whacked his entire reputation and pruned his business quite substantially.  Wally, I think you might want to try becoming a xeriscaping expert.

I have 500+ friends, so I must be a stud

I don’t like to brag, BUT I think it’s worth reporting that I have passed a pretty significant milestone in my life.  As of last week, I now have 500+ friends on Linked-In.  I have so many friends now that Linked-In has stopped counting, and I’m anxiously awaiting my 500+ Club card in the mail.  I have to admit, however, that I am having just a twinge of networker’s remorse now that I’ve passed this impressive milestone.   I’m actually starting to wonder if I liked it better when I was hovering around the 470’s.  470 friends is a good, respectable number - you’ve got some networking fire-power, but without the fanfare and stigma of being a 500+ guy.  In fact, the more I think about it, I think there might be a credibility bell-curve associated with the number of friends one has in Linked-In, and I’m wondering if I’m now on the “overly-hyper-networker”, downward sloping leg of that curve.  Just think about the class of individuals who tend to be in the 500+ club... they try to link to me all the time, and I ignore them.  Recruiters, sales people, pyramid marketers, shucksters, hustlers, snake-oil salesmen, politicians and other unsavory characters.  And now, sadly, I am one of them.

But hey - it’s not my fault.  I mean - who made this arbitrary decision that 500 should be the scarlet letter of networking?  I can imagine the meeting at Linked-In...

“So, today we will be discussing the friend metrics feature on Linked In.  Sally, how many friends do you have?”

“Well, um, I don’t know.  Maybe 50 or 60?”

“Bob, how about you?”

“Uh, well, I have a lot of college buddies, and some friends on my block.  I don’t know - maybe 130-150?”

“Ok.  Well, we need to cut this off somewhere.  Anyone have any ideas?”

“How about 500.  Anyone that has over 500 friends is a shallow phony.  How could you possibly keep in touch with that many people?  It’s like those people who send you Christmas cards of their kids, and you don’t even know them.”

“Ok, then, it’s settled.  We’ll cap the count at 500 people, and anyone who goes over will be exposed for the liar and cheat that they are.  They should be ashamed of themselves, claiming to have that many friends.  I mean, seriously, some people in this world only have 2 or 3 friends, and would kill for double digits.  In fact, we won’t tell anyone, but let’s put in a hidden upper limit of 999.  If anyone dares hit 999 friends, we’ll secretly link them to a known terrorist for their 1000th friend.  We’ll join them to the Friends of Al-Qaeda network, and then sit back and watch the CIA do their thing.  That will teach them to take advantage of social networking.”

Yes, I am definitely going to start jettisoning friends.  I have got to get back under 500.  The question is, how?  How do you un-link someone?  What message is that sending?  “Hey man, thanks for Linking-In to me and all, but I’ve changed my mind.  You just aren’t valuable to me anymore.  You are a networking dead-end, my man. Roadkill on the side of my reputation highway.  Sorry.”  No, I don’t think so.  I’m not that cold-blooded.

No, I need a system.  A fair and equitable system.  We’re just purging the data here, not making any judgement calls.  Alphabetical?  No, I don’t want to punish the A’s or the Z’s.  Birth-date?  No - age discrimination.  Date of Linking In to me?  LIFO or FIFO? I’ve got it!  I’ll take volunteers, just like the airlines do when they are overbooked. “We are over-networked on this account, and are taking volunteers to Un-Link from Todd’s network.  We are offering vouchers for a real-life, e-mail introduction to any of Todd’s Linked-In contacts for anyone willing to volunteer to de-link.”

If this works, I can make it back into the credibility zone of 470 or so in a few days, I would guess.  But hey - why stop there?  What if I can get this thing leaned-down to, say 99.  I’ll brand it “The 99”, and it will be this exclusive, secretive society of my most valuable contacts.   I’ll create a 99 retreat to an undisclosed location each year, and we will have a secret hand-shake and chant.   Twitter will be buzzing about it.  “Are you in The 99?  Who is in The 99?  Do you know anyone in The 99? ”  Yes.  This can work.  99, here I come.  For you 401+ who don’t make the cut, I apologize in advance.  I’ve summited the peak of 500+ - I’ve seen what’s there, and I didn’t like what I saw.  I’m a hardened, savvy networker now, and I’ve learned that quality is better than quantity, and now I’m on my way back down the mountain.  Catch ya’ on the flip-side (or, I’m always available on Facebook).

Big idea: Social social networking

I just met this guy from Lebanon, Walid (he fixed a broken window in my house, and did a fantastic job). He moved to the US 4 years ago with his family to get away from the economy and general discord in Lebanon right now. And get this: Walid does not Twitter.

Walid likes Raleigh just fine (it's safe, pretty, he's found good work and his business is growing), except for one major adjustment: he continues to be amazed by the ghost-town neighborhoods he drives through every day. Walid told me that in Lebanon (as in most other parts of the world, I think), there are people walking around the streets all the time. Kids are outside, people are talking, and you see your extended family multiple times a week. In the US? Well, we have MySpace.

Yesterday, I saw that blogging makes you happier and that babies now have a social network. Progress! Don't get me wrong - LinkedIn, FaceBook and Twitter have helped me connect with all sorts of great people in new ways - but is it at the expense of the time-tested old way of actually walking out of my house and talking to my neighbors? Could be.

At the risk of throwing the baby out with the bath-water, here's the big idea: try Twittering when you are with someone else. Heck, have a Twitter party - great wine, great music, and Twitter on your 42" plasma. Turn over the keyboard to your friends, and have at it. My bet is it turns into a pretty fun evening. Social social networking is born.