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The sandpile and the avalanche

I was power-buying at Costco recently when I discovered, situated between the tube sock 12-pack display and the bulk yard fertilizer (enough to fertilize a golf course), a brand-new book: The Age of the Unthinkable, by Joshua Cooper Ramo.

Full disclosure:  I haven't finished the book yet, and Ramo seems to have a knack for using a lot of words to not get to the point - but, I find the book intriguing just the same.  And, applicable to Postmarketing.

A central concept that Ramo talks about is the unpredictable nature of sandpiles, as studied by a Danish scientist named Per Bak.  Bak created sandpile after sandpile, by systematically dropping sand one grain at a time, and then observing at what point a grain of sand dropped and set-off a chain-reaction avalanche that caused the whole pile to disintegrate.  His conclusion?  There is no way to predict which grain of sand will cause the avalanche, or the extent of the damage.

For Ramo, this is a useful analogy to the seeming chaos of the current geo-political environment, with terrorists, quasi-nation-states, separatist groups and transnational organizations all vying for power.  Even with all of the intelligence in the world, there is no way to predict the event that might change everything, or the extent to which any single event will alter the future.

Lest I fall victim to not getting to my point quickly, here it is:  the worlds of marketing, social networking, media and technology are being mashed-up in ways that can't be predicted, meaning that the old ways of looking at marketing (like the 4p's) are increasingly irrelevant, and potentially even flawed.  One can no longer predict market acceptance, because the grain of sand that causes an avalanche of adoption can't be predicted.

Postmarketers must be scientists (experimental and analytical) and deconstructionists (of existing methods and assumptions) so that they raise their probability of finding the grain that sets-off a chain reaction of adoption.

Now, I'm going to go finish that book...

Postmarketing - New principles for a new age

Soapbox time!  I've been thinking a lot about how the dramatic changes in the global economy might affect my job as a marketer, and I have had the privilege to speak to a number of companies about how they are rethinking marketing.  So, I thought I would share my ideas with you via a SlideShare preso.

Please check it out, send it to others who might like it, and rate it.  I would love to hear your comments and feedback here, or in SlideShare.

*Disclaimer:  this is a preso, meant to be presented, so it leaves a bit to the imagination.  I will delve deeper on some of the concepts in the coming days, in blog posts.  Enjoy!

Postmarketing - new principles for the postmarketing age

View more presentations from tbarr. (tags: media social)

How Wacky Wally weed-whacked his weputation

Marketing lesson of the day:  in the reputation economy, you can run, but you can't hide.

The guy who takes care of my yard has branded himself Wacky Wally (it's actually not Wacky Wally, but it's similar - names have been changed to protect the guilty, in this case).  When you say it, it kind of makes you chuckle and it's easy to remember - probably a pretty good idea for someone who, theoretically, grows his business based on word-of-mouth and a good reputation.

Trouble is - Wacky Wally isn't a very good yard guy.  I would fire him, but my landlord pays for it so I don't really care that much.  I might have just concluded that Wally was just really busy and in-demand, so that's why he lets my yard grow uncontrollably for weeks.  And, if I got frustrated enough and really did fire him, he probably could have talked me into a second chance or, worst case scenario, just lost one small customer.

But that's not how Wally rolls.  Recently, Wally sent out an e-mail to all of his customers to ask them to vote for him in the latest Austin Chronicle Best-of-Austin poll for Best Landscaper, with the subject "LOVE".

Mistake number one was that he didn't BCC everyone, so we all saw the entire e-mail list of his customers (making it easy to Reply-All).  But mistake number two actually happened awhile ago:  Wally provided bad service, and didn't fix it.

Two replies (and only two) came back to the entire list almost immediately:

Reply #1: 

"Are you kidding?  You were the worst experience we ever had regarding yard men!"

Reply #2: 

"Hi Wally,

My puzzlement notwithstanding - if you will do something about those dead plants that you charged me for after your costly and protracted landscaping effort, I will not only vote for you several times but will forget that you did not return my "four" related messages begging you to deal with my plants.

I am not only forgiving, but easily bought off; if you fix my plants - I will vote my ass off!!

Best regards,

-Larry Hiller (name changed)

With LOVE, of course."

Final score:  Angry Customers 2, Wally's reputation 0.

So, in the course of one e-mail, Wally pretty much weed-whacked his entire reputation and pruned his business quite substantially.  Wally, I think you might want to try becoming a xeriscaping expert.

Big idea: Social social networking

I just met this guy from Lebanon, Walid (he fixed a broken window in my house, and did a fantastic job). He moved to the US 4 years ago with his family to get away from the economy and general discord in Lebanon right now. And get this: Walid does not Twitter.

Walid likes Raleigh just fine (it's safe, pretty, he's found good work and his business is growing), except for one major adjustment: he continues to be amazed by the ghost-town neighborhoods he drives through every day. Walid told me that in Lebanon (as in most other parts of the world, I think), there are people walking around the streets all the time. Kids are outside, people are talking, and you see your extended family multiple times a week. In the US? Well, we have MySpace.

Yesterday, I saw that blogging makes you happier and that babies now have a social network. Progress! Don't get me wrong - LinkedIn, FaceBook and Twitter have helped me connect with all sorts of great people in new ways - but is it at the expense of the time-tested old way of actually walking out of my house and talking to my neighbors? Could be.

At the risk of throwing the baby out with the bath-water, here's the big idea: try Twittering when you are with someone else. Heck, have a Twitter party - great wine, great music, and Twitter on your 42" plasma. Turn over the keyboard to your friends, and have at it. My bet is it turns into a pretty fun evening. Social social networking is born.