MarketingFree

The sandpile and the avalanche

I was power-buying at Costco recently when I discovered, situated between the tube sock 12-pack display and the bulk yard fertilizer (enough to fertilize a golf course), a brand-new book: The Age of the Unthinkable, by Joshua Cooper Ramo.

Full disclosure:  I haven't finished the book yet, and Ramo seems to have a knack for using a lot of words to not get to the point - but, I find the book intriguing just the same.  And, applicable to Postmarketing.

A central concept that Ramo talks about is the unpredictable nature of sandpiles, as studied by a Danish scientist named Per Bak.  Bak created sandpile after sandpile, by systematically dropping sand one grain at a time, and then observing at what point a grain of sand dropped and set-off a chain-reaction avalanche that caused the whole pile to disintegrate.  His conclusion?  There is no way to predict which grain of sand will cause the avalanche, or the extent of the damage.

For Ramo, this is a useful analogy to the seeming chaos of the current geo-political environment, with terrorists, quasi-nation-states, separatist groups and transnational organizations all vying for power.  Even with all of the intelligence in the world, there is no way to predict the event that might change everything, or the extent to which any single event will alter the future.

Lest I fall victim to not getting to my point quickly, here it is:  the worlds of marketing, social networking, media and technology are being mashed-up in ways that can't be predicted, meaning that the old ways of looking at marketing (like the 4p's) are increasingly irrelevant, and potentially even flawed.  One can no longer predict market acceptance, because the grain of sand that causes an avalanche of adoption can't be predicted.

Postmarketers must be scientists (experimental and analytical) and deconstructionists (of existing methods and assumptions) so that they raise their probability of finding the grain that sets-off a chain reaction of adoption.

Now, I'm going to go finish that book...

Postmarketing: Why Lexus ads make me queezy

This post relates to the Postmarketing presentation.  Check it out.

With all due respect to the quality of Lexus automobiles, Lexus ads now make me queezy.  Do you remember those Holiday ads with the red bow around the Lexus?  Honestly, how many of you have bestowed a $50,000 Christmas present on a loved one (without any twinge of buyer's remorse)?

But since we're all being open with one another here, I didn't begin to feel this way until sometime last summer - when the economy started tanking.  Why?  Because I was used to luxury, and I was used to luxury being marketed to me.  I haven't owned a car without leather seats in years (my Accord even has seat-warmers!).  I expected Ritz Carlton-level service everywhere I went, and whined when I didn't get it.  I looked at a house with 3 garages last year, and justified what I might do with the 3rd bay (didn't buy it - whew!).  This is not because I had some great windfall of cash - rather, it was because we had all come to expect that we can afford (and even deserve) luxury, and we had a seemingly endless windfall of credit to pay for it.  Luxury had been commoditized.

That was last year.  Now, luxury is being returned to its rightful place among people who can afford it (with cash) and, even there, luxury is having a rough go of it.  Luxury is not only expensive again, but it's out of style... said another way, Less is the new More.

The implications for marketers are profound.  How do you market less?  Green marketers have certainly led the way on this, although even green marketing to-date has been "more - and green too!".  I believe the path forward is simple: market genuine value (thanks to Chris Grams and David Burney for blazing this trail at Red Hat).

In order to avoid being irrelevant (or, worse, nauseating), marketers must focus on truthful, straightforward messaging about the actual value of their products & services.  Slathering on generous amounts of luxury positioning was an easy cheat during the boom - but it wreaks of excess & consumption in the postmarketing world.

It would be a luxury for me if you commented on this post - please indulge!

Postmarketing - New principles for a new age

Soapbox time!  I've been thinking a lot about how the dramatic changes in the global economy might affect my job as a marketer, and I have had the privilege to speak to a number of companies about how they are rethinking marketing.  So, I thought I would share my ideas with you via a SlideShare preso.

Please check it out, send it to others who might like it, and rate it.  I would love to hear your comments and feedback here, or in SlideShare.

*Disclaimer:  this is a preso, meant to be presented, so it leaves a bit to the imagination.  I will delve deeper on some of the concepts in the coming days, in blog posts.  Enjoy!

Postmarketing - new principles for the postmarketing age

View more presentations from tbarr. (tags: media social)

Must read: Enough of Too Much

I've been thinking a lot recently about how these drastically different economic conditions are going to change marketing, and I came across this must read:  Productivity:  Enough of Too Much (free registration required - sorry!).  The author, J. Walker Smith, is President of a marketing research company - but, more importantly, has more degrees from UNC than I do (which means he must be right).

Key takeaway:  Less is the new more.

Stay-tuned to marketingfree, as I will be publishing a lot more thoughts on post-meltdown marketing.

Marketing vs. sales is so last year

I came across a biased, uninformed, largely inflammatory (but otherwise a great read!) BNET post today called How Technology Killed Marketing.  While Geoffrey James's description of how the Internet has changed marketing is largely on-point, the conclusion is dead-wrong.

James contends that the ability to track the effectiveness of every lead (closed-loop marketing) has exposed, and therefore killed, marketing.  Sorry Mr. James, but the opposite is true.  The ability to track the effectiveness of every lead ALL THE WAY through to every sales channel and person only make marketing both more effective and more strategic.  Now, good messaging, positioning, creative and programs can be more easily and more quickly distinguished from bad... and good sales channels and sales people can easily be distinguished from bad - based on the right metrics.

At a previous company that I worked for, sales continually pined for "more leads".  But once we had the right closed-loop marketing systems installed and integrated into SF.com, we began to uncover interesting truths, like: the good sales people indeed did need more leads, but the bad (and quiet) ones actually were sitting on leads that good people could have closed; some leads were going into "black holes" because of empty territories, cherry picking, or someone's assumption that "all trade-show leads are bad"; etc.

Armed with the right tools and data, marketers helped sales come up with better lead distribution (including pushing many to the channel), improve programs to improve lead quality, and actually expose under-performing sales resources.  Not exactly what Mr. James had in-mind, I think.

For smart companies, marketing vs. sales is not an issue any more.  As I have often said, marketing is just selling to many, while sales is marketing to one.  The skills might be different, but the goals are algined.  Let's bury the hatchet.

As if being President wasn't enough...

... Advertising Age named Barack Obama "Marketer of the Year" (in truth, they did that before the election, but still!  I'll bet you're angling for person-of-the-year from Time, too.  Leave some scraps for the rest of us, Prez!).  My friends at ReachForce did a nice blog post about it, highlighting the key online marketing tactics.

But digging a little deeper, the folks at Wider Funnel did a nice post about multivariate testing that barackobama.com was using, taking advantage of Google Website Optimizer.  This type of granular, rapid-feedback testing is truly one of the differentiators of online marketing, with one caveat:  it requires statistical significance.  If you don't have enough users to rapidly get answers, you risk making bad decisions.  barackobama.com didn't have the problem.

An easy way to test is by just doing some ad-words campaigns with varied messaging, and then look at click-through rates... but make sure you are seeing enough traffic before you make any judgements.  Even better is to keep tests going long-term, and (assuming you have closed-loop marketing of some kind) look at conversion rates of those leads.  At a minimum, figure out where people are going after the initial click, so that you can make some assumptions about the quality of the visitors.

10 reasons (some good, some lame) that I voted for Barack Obama

Confession time:  I voted for Barack Obama yesterday, and this is the first time I have ever voted for a democrat for president.  Have I changed?  Maybe.  Have Republicans changed? Definitely.  Now that Republicans, at least at the presidential level, are no longer the party of limited government, everything is up for grabs.  So, as a service to my North Carolina friends who are on the fence, here are the 10 reasons I voted for Obama - some are good, and some are lame, but maybe it will help you make up your mind:

1)  He's an honorary Tarheel - He's the only candidate with the moxy to have laced it up with the Tarheel basketball team for some pick-up hoops, and Dean Smith endorsed him.  Some of you won't need to read on, and can head over to the polling place on this point alone - and I applaud you.

2)  Inspiration vs. Manipulation - In general, Obama's campaign seeks to inspire; McCain's campaign seeks to manipulate.  Yes, this is politics, and both campaigns have said ugly things.  But even McCain's Vice Presidential pick was largely, in my eyes, an effort to manipulate a reluctant conservative Republican base to vote for him.  Labeling Obama as a socialist or terrorist's pal is a manipulative tactic, because it stirs up fear in order to get a certain behavior.  Obama's message is about who we can be.  McCain's message is about preserving who we are.  I'm not satisfied with who we are, as a country.  We can do better.

3)  Taxes - Never in our country's history have we prosecuted a war and lowered income taxes at the same time... that is, until George W. Bush's administration.   During World War I, congress raised the top marginal tax rate to 77%!  During World War II, the top marginal tax rate was in the 90% range, and stayed that way until the 1960's, when it was lowered to a more palatable 70% range.  These tax rates included both the wars in Vietnam and Korea.  In the 80's, under Reagan, the top marginal tax rate was lowered to its lowest rate of 28%, but went back up to 40% during the first Gulf war (was the first George Bush a socialist?).  So to say that Obama's tax plan, which raises the top marginal rate back to 39%, and cuts taxes for most people, is anything close to "socialist" is absurd in the context of history - and McCain's plan is downright irresponsible.  The federal income tax in the US has always been a "progressive" system that taxes higher income at a higher rate, so we need to either change the tax system - or stop arguing that 39% is somehow more socialist than 35%.  As a country, we spend more than we take in and 10% of our Federal budget is interest payments.  Neither candidate will make a positive dent in the deficit, but at least Obama's plan has the right trajectory.

4)  Leadership - If Obama runs the White House anything like he has run his campaign, he can accomplish great things.  The Obama campaign machine is one of the most inventive, effective and efficient enterprises that I have ever seen.  He has surrounded himself with smart, capable, creative people who have redefined the idea and tactics of a presidential campaign, created an amazing brand, and utilized online and social media in amazing ways to engage and energize people.  True leaders are humble enough to know that they can't know everything, and Obama clearly surrounds himself with people who can challenge him and help him figure out the tough problems.  His measured selection of Joe Biden as his running mate is a good example.

5)  Open Communication - Obama has used social media, like Twitter, along with online video and e-mail to keep his supporters informed and energized.  I have high hopes that President Obama will do some of the same things, creating a new "civics graph" that leverages social technologies to enable the citizens and government to work more collaboratively to solve this country's problems.  The current administration has been secretive and deterministic, rather than open and collaborative.  I'm not so naive as to think that many of a President's decisions and concerns should remain inside the Oval Office, but I would like to see more communication and collaboration.  Remember folks, Twitter doesn't kill people.  People kill people.

6)  The Hearts and Minds of our Youth - The next president will be the president of my children's youth... the one around whom they will shape their view of national leadership and America's place in this world.  The president of my youth was Ronald Reagan - despite whether you agree or disagree with his politics, he was the hopeful face and spokesperson for the end of the Cold War and inspired the world.  Obama has inspired the youth of this country like no candidate in recent history.  Through his example, he has the real opportunity to help shape a generation of Americans into people who are civic-minded, thoughtful, and hopeful about their country, as opposed to ambivalent or, worse yet, cynical.  I would hate to see us miss this opportunity to engage and inspire our young people by resisting change and retrenching around the status quo.

7)  World Reputation - My ideal of America's standing in the world was largely shaped by an image I have of Ronald Reagan smiling (and probably joking) with Mikhail Gorbachev.  Reagan was tough and uncompromising about important ideas, but in an inclusive and inviting way.  That's how I see America at its best:  tough and uncompromising about the things that matter (freedom of our people, the American dream, helping our friends and allies), but inclusive and inviting to willing allies who want to benefit from friendship with America.  Reagan's America invited people living in oppressive communist regimes to join-in to the opportunity of freedom - and then the people of those countries did the rest of the work.  I was e-mailing recently with my college roommate, who now lives in Zambia helping to fight Malaria, who said:  "All of Africa is excited about Obama.... We see t-shirts and bumper stickers everywhere. No one here cares who he is running against."  Obama is exciting the world about the potential for an American leader who embodies freedom and opportunity, instead of imposing it.

8)  Religion & Character - I'm a Christian, and I believe that God's purposes will be carried out no matter who is president.   So, like Martin Luther, I would rather have a wise non-Christian leader than a stupid Christian leader (not his exact words, but that's the gist).  The good news here is that neither candidate is stupid (or the anti-christ, as some e-mails will try to convince you) and both claim to be Christians - with equivalent evidence on each side that they indeed practice their faith.  So, I take them at their word.  But what put me over the edge on this one is Obama's wailing wall prayer that was printed by an Israeli newspaper (some will say this was "staged" - you make your own determination).  He wrote, "Lord—Protect my family and me.  Forgive me my sins, and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will."  If that prayer is sincere, he is exactly the type of person I want in the White House.

9)  History - I read a blog recently that recounted a story of a man who changed his vote at the last minute to Obama because, "...I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."  I actually don't care about Obama's race or social standing or other demographic attribute.  No, for me, I think Obama has what it takes to be a transformational world leader, and, if it works out that way, I want to be able to tell my kids that I indeed DID vote for that guy.

10)  I'm a sucker for a great brand - Obama is like Apple, and McCain is like Vista.  'Nuf said.

As always, comments are open and welcome.

Help me sell my house

If you haven't heard by now, I'm trying to sell my house.  Luckily, I'm not underwater and I can afford to wait this out (and my heart goes out to those who are in dire situations right now).  For us - we're just ready to move on with our lives in our new city.

Besides the fact that I brilliantly timed my move to coincide with the worst housing market since the Depression, we've done everything by-the-book.  Nice house, established, sought-after neighborhood in a booming town, great school district, no fatal flaws.  We've renovated, painted, and fixed.  If we could pick our house up and move it to Austin, we would.  Lookers have called our house "nice", "great", and even "awesome".  But the sad fact is:  nobody is buying houses right now.

As I've wracked my brain to figure this out, it occurred to me that I am the proud owner of a marketing blog.  Surely I, or my intrepid readers (all 3 of you), can figure this out.  This is simply a marketing problem,  right? 

So, what creative marketing ideas can you come up with to sell my house?  Post your comments on this blog or reply to me on Facebook or Twitter. Let's get those creative juices flowing!

Here's a few early ideas to prime the pump:

- hold an essay contest to win my house, where I charge $100 per entry (problem with this is that it has only worked a couple of times... usually, it's hard to get 5,000 people to enter, so you end-up having to return everybody's money.  Will it work in Raleigh?)

- discover a Virgin Mary image on a crawlspace wall (the Virgin Mary grilled cheese sold on eBay for $28k, so I'm bullish on this idea)

- give away a Prius with my house (going "green" is still the new marketing hotness)

- claim I can see Russia from my house

Your turn!

(And if you really want to help, here's the link to my house listing that you can send to anyone who you think might be interested.  I'm in the mood to make a deal!)

How Wacky Wally weed-whacked his weputation

Marketing lesson of the day:  in the reputation economy, you can run, but you can't hide.

The guy who takes care of my yard has branded himself Wacky Wally (it's actually not Wacky Wally, but it's similar - names have been changed to protect the guilty, in this case).  When you say it, it kind of makes you chuckle and it's easy to remember - probably a pretty good idea for someone who, theoretically, grows his business based on word-of-mouth and a good reputation.

Trouble is - Wacky Wally isn't a very good yard guy.  I would fire him, but my landlord pays for it so I don't really care that much.  I might have just concluded that Wally was just really busy and in-demand, so that's why he lets my yard grow uncontrollably for weeks.  And, if I got frustrated enough and really did fire him, he probably could have talked me into a second chance or, worst case scenario, just lost one small customer.

But that's not how Wally rolls.  Recently, Wally sent out an e-mail to all of his customers to ask them to vote for him in the latest Austin Chronicle Best-of-Austin poll for Best Landscaper, with the subject "LOVE".

Mistake number one was that he didn't BCC everyone, so we all saw the entire e-mail list of his customers (making it easy to Reply-All).  But mistake number two actually happened awhile ago:  Wally provided bad service, and didn't fix it.

Two replies (and only two) came back to the entire list almost immediately:

Reply #1: 

"Are you kidding?  You were the worst experience we ever had regarding yard men!"

Reply #2: 

"Hi Wally,

My puzzlement notwithstanding - if you will do something about those dead plants that you charged me for after your costly and protracted landscaping effort, I will not only vote for you several times but will forget that you did not return my "four" related messages begging you to deal with my plants.

I am not only forgiving, but easily bought off; if you fix my plants - I will vote my ass off!!

Best regards,

-Larry Hiller (name changed)

With LOVE, of course."

Final score:  Angry Customers 2, Wally's reputation 0.

So, in the course of one e-mail, Wally pretty much weed-whacked his entire reputation and pruned his business quite substantially.  Wally, I think you might want to try becoming a xeriscaping expert.

WFH: Weapons, Fear & Hopelessness

Ever since I have been of the house-buying age, I’ve been on a quest for the perfect home office.  Quiet, secluded, spacious... with large picture windows overlooking a natural scene... deer and bunnies munching on natural grasses surrounded by wildflowers, and a babbling stream feeding a waterfall gently cascading into a koi pond within a peaceful Zen garden. My office would have an eclectic mix of vintage antique finds in an office motif - an old credenza, with an antique typewriter... a quill and various-sized jars of ink... brass scales, and a Newton’s Cradle - and a functional, oversized modern desk, with lots of brushed steel and glass.  I would have a sitting area, with a lamp, vintage leather chairs, and a small table with brain-stimulating toys like a Rubik’s Cube and one of those Pin Art things that looks like a little tiny version of Uncle Fester’s bed.  I would have old, but not too old, copies of Inc., Fortune, and Wired (I’m still a Gen-X’er) laying neatly on an ottoman, and a small wooden bookshelf filled with classics like Art of the Deal, Crossing the Chasm, the Goal (I’m a big Herby fan) and Glengarry Glen Ross (just to make any sales guys squirm).  The lighting would be exquisite, with counter-balanced swing arm lamps and recessed halogens on a dimmer, and I would have a motion-detector so that when I entered the room, the lighting would ease on as I settled into my Aeron chair.  I would have a speakerphone with a wireless headset so that I could walk around the room on important calls, spinning stainless steel baoding balls in my hand and gazing into my nature scene, looking like a man at the helm of the universe.

It would be such a fabulous office that I would actually wake-up, take a shower, dress business casual, and put on loafers before entering the home office.  I would say to my wife, “Darling, I think I’ll work from home today so that I can get some things done without people bothering me.  I’ll be in ‘the home office’.”  She would respond, “Okay, sweetheart.  I’ll bring you a skinny latte and some steel-cut oats in a little while, and I’ll make sure that the kids don’t disturb you.”  And I would proceed to enter my sanctuary of commerce, where I would produce copious amounts of completed work in mere hours of undisturbed serenity.   I would be so productive in that office, that the IRS would ask - even beg - me to deduct 100% of my office expenses, because it is so clearly a thriving hub of economic activity for the nation.  My work colleagues would stop by “just to say hi”, when indeed they were on a religious pilgrimage to lay their eyes on the Mecca of productivity.  As they walked in, wide-eyed, awestruck, I would fix them a scotch on the rocks from the office bar, as they would gush, “Soo, this is the place where your best ideas - the best ideas - come from.  No wonder you work from home so often... I would too if I had an office like this.” And I would beam proudly behind them, secretly winking, pointing, and mouthing, “you-da-man” at the commissioned self-portrait above the mantle (did I mention the office has a fireplace?).

The unfortunate reality is that, absent the aforementioned home office, working from home for me consists of a laptop, an internet connection, a cell phone, juveniles who keep wanting to try-out their latest joke, a dog who wants walked, a lot of things to do around the house, a constant source of snacks, ESPN, espn.com, the Wii, a comfy bed, and good music.  In fact, that description sounds eerily like WFFH - working from frat-house - and I am indeed about as productive as when I was WFFH (which is to say, just barely productive enough).  Yes folks, it’s time to own-up to the truth:  WFH is not good for you or your business.

As near as I can tell, WFH has simply replaced the concept of “sick days”, but with a more flexible definition of acceptable use cases.  Here is my best, most comprehensive list of the possible meanings of WFH:

Working following Hibernation (I’m tired today, so I’m going to stay home and sleep awhile)

Waiting for Handbags (I ordered some stuff over the Internet, and it’s going to be delivered today)

Wasted from Hangover (I overdid it a bit last night)

Winner! Free Holiday! (I just freakin’ need a day off, so I’m takin’ it)

Waiting from Hell (I just ordered cable service, and the cable guy said he’d be here between 9 and noon, and it’s now 1pm...)

Wind for Hammock (First day of spring weather and it’s beautiful outside).

Wheat Farmer Here (Okay, if you are a farmer, working from home is okay.  But be sure to get to that feed store once or twice a week.)

But if lack of productivity isn’t enough to justify stopping WFH, consider this:  isolation drives people crazy.  Humans are social creatures, meant to interact together in order to grow and thrive.  Yes, people in cities sometimes go postal - but the really dangerous people live alone, way out in the country, and are much more prone to building bunkers, stockpiling weapons, and thinking the government is about to invade them.  When your only connection to the outside world is network TV, bunkering down seems like a pretty good idea.

Working from home has similar mental hazards.  If e-mail and conference calls are your only interaction, you begin to read subtle messages into every email and every conference call comment.  What did he mean by that?  What did she really mean by that question?  Why did he copy my boss?  Is he out to get me?  Next thing you know, you’re going to be sharpening all of your pencils to a lethal point and stock-piling Slim Jims in your desk drawer.  Folks, it’s just not worth it.  Get up, get a shower, kiss your spouse and kids, pet the dog -  and get your butt to work.  Humans just weren’t meant to work from home.